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Muskoka Post Staff
A new study, co-authored by Karligash Glass, Professor of Financial Economics and a respected economic data scientist within Loughborough University’s School of Business and Economics, Professor Anthony Glass (Professor of Managerial Economics, the University of Sheffield), Sam Williams (founder and Director of Economic Insight) and Alasdair Crookes (Consultant at Economic Insight) proposed an enhanced approach to crunching COVID death numbers.
"We address the question of: ‘how many deaths in England and Wales are due to COVID-19?’
There are two approaches to measuring COVID deaths – ‘COVID associated deaths’ and ‘excess deaths.' An excess deaths type framework is preferable, as there is substantial measurement error in COVID associated deaths, due to issues relating to the identification of deaths that are directly attributable to COVID-19. A limitation of the current excess deaths metric (a comparison of deaths to a 5 year average for the same week), is that it attributes the entirety of the variation in mortality to COVID-19. This likely means that the metric is overstated because there are a range of other drivers of mortality. We address this by estimating novel empirical Poisson models for all-cause deaths (in totality; by age category; for males; and females) that account for other drivers including the lockdown Government policy response. The models are novel because they include COVID identifier variables (which are a variation on a dummy variable). We use these identifiers to estimate weekly deviations in COVID deaths (about the mean weekly estimate pertaining to the COVID dummy variable in our baseline model). Results from two sets of identifiers indicate that, over the periods when our weekly estimates of total COVID deaths and the current excess deaths measure differ (week ending 17th or 24th April 2020 – week ending 8th May 2020), the former is considerably below the latter – on average per week 4670 deaths (54%) lower, or 4727 deaths (63%) lower, respectively."
This means that currently COVID-associated deaths or excess deaths are used to track the impact of the virus. However these figures may be distorted as to record a COVID-associated death you require only weak evidence that COVID ‘may’ have contributed to the death, and counting excess deaths assumes that any variation in weekly mortality relative to a five year average represents ‘excess’ deaths due to COVID without taking into account other drivers of mortality.
The researchers have used statistical techniques to better identify deaths due to COVID, applying the excess death framework more robustly and controlling for other factors that affect mortality. The key findings are as follows:
Actual deaths due to COVID are some 54% or 63% lower than implied by the standard excess deaths measure, and reported excess deaths likely include a significant number of non-COVID deaths.
While it is well known that COVID deaths are concentrated in the elderly, the study finds them to be particularly acute in the very elderly (75-84 and 85+ years old).
Over the lockdown period as a whole Government policy has increased mortality rather than reduced it.
This final finding may be alarming to some, but the authors point out that the lockdown initiative was always intended to ‘flatten the curve’ (delaying the spread to avoid overburdening the health care system) and not necessarily to lower mortality rates. They also assert that the overall increase in mortality is a result of significant unintended consequences of the lockdown, for example, reduced cancer and cardiac treatments.
Speaking about the new study, Loughborough’s Professor Karligash Glass said: “In addition to providing a new way of measuring the impact of COVID-19, this study raises questions not simply about the efficacy of the blanket lockdown response, but also whether Government communications to encourage public compliance have inadvertently driven other, more harmful, behaviours.”
Professor Karligash Glass and Professor Anthony Glass are also academic associates of Economic Insight, a leading UK economics consultancy.
The paper, ‘An Improved Measure of Deaths due to COVID-19 in England and Wales’, is due to be a published as a working paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635548