Muskoka Post Staff
Ontario Public Health Covid-19 Models and Update Highlights:
👉This is in the hands of the public. 👉Stay at home and physically distance yourself is the single most important point. 👉Public health measures so far have made a significant difference. 👉67 deaths in Ontario to date with lag 👉This virus has a high mortality rate of 16 percent in those over the age of 80. Over the age of 70 deaths are also significant at 10 percent. 👉We must focus on protecting the elderly. 👉Ontario is following the trajectory similar to the US, however tracking cases is difficult as it’s dependent on who is tested. 👉Deaths around the world are mounting. 👉Important to acknowledge that a great deal has been done in Ontario to prevent deaths. 👉Models are used to plan but they are always an abstraction said Adalsteinn Brown, U of T. 👉 Ontario modelling projections show that if social distancing measures and self-isolation NOT happened in March there would be 100,000 deaths over course of the pandemic 👉Current projection is 3,000 to 15,000. 1,600 by April 30th. 👉Further strong public health actions would put the cases at approximately 250. 👉 This pandemic might last 18 months to 2 years. 👉 ICU capacity might be pushed over limit in parts of province by April/May. Next week we might run out of ICU beds. Shortages are possible. 👉 The reproductive number for COVID-19 is dependant on social distancing. 👉 Snowbirds coming back from the US are a problem for Ontario’s case numbers. 👉 There is a possibility for COVID-19 waves over the next few months.